Yardi Matrix Adjusts Multifamily Supply Forecast Amid Construction Trends
Yardi Matrix has slightly increased its multifamily supply forecast because of a larger under-development pipeline combined with elevated completion times. However, it expects new-construction activity to decelerate, with new supply projected to bottom out in 2026.
In its second quarter update, Yardi Matrix increased its supply forecast 2.6% to 553,613 units for 2024. It also increased its 2025 and 2026 forecasts by 2.2% with 468,958 and 385,225 units coming online, respectively. Longer term, Yardi Matrix’s baseline forecasts are relatively unchanged: a modest 0.3% increase for 2027 to 396,037 units, a 1.2% increase for 2028 to 406,376 units, and a -0.1% decrease in 2029 to 426,283 units.
According to Yardi Matrix, for multifamily markets tracked on or before January 2020, 1.3 million units are under construction. This includes 536,325 units that are in lease-up and expected to come online this year. The volume is slightly below the trailing six-month average of 545,905 units and down 1.6% quarter over quarter.
The bulk of the remaining 728,357 units under construction and not in lease-up are expected to be completed in 2025. This volume represents increases of 4.3% quarter over quarter and 21.2% year over year. However, elevated construction times could extend some completions to 2026.